Another Top-10 List — Cities With the Greatest Residential Vacancy Rates

NameTimesLoggedIn?#Views?
Antonio Rodriguez1125
Belinda Jiang00
Cindy Plisowski00
Craig Harwerth4442
Eric Givens28363
Frances Tortorice00
George Holzwarth00
Gus Garza35233
Jacquelyn Courtney1120
Justin Carroll00
Kamal Haji00
Kasi Darimadugu00
Kathryn Bass00
Kelsey Velez00
Liberty Riley61226
Marc Tanberg9337
Marcus Rodriguez00
Matt Krob00
Mauricio Sanchez11
Morgan Rockman00
Payal Bhatia00
Robert Dunlap00
Ryan Grayless00
Scott Walker208408
Tamara Webb00
Tim Wang27
Travis Buckingham425417
RankCity, StateMedian Home List Price
1Atlantic City, New Jersey$117,500
2Keansburg, New Jersey$125,000
3Gulfport, Mississippi$154.700
4Deerfield Beach, Florida$157,900
5La Porte, Texas$193,600
6Myrtle Beach, South Carolina$199,000
7Port Lavaca, Texas$199,700
8Daytona Beach, Florida$199,900
9Ocean Shores, Washington$232,500
10North Bend, Oregon$239,000
Source: Realtor.com

Jobs (Millions) Seasonally Adjusted

YearsMillions Net Jobs in Past 12-Months
'07137
'08138
'09139
'10133
'11132
'12134
'13136
'14138
'15143
'16145
'17147
Source: line

Comparison of Population Breakdown in H-town (millions)

Race20062016Expected in 2026
Hispanic23.85.8
Black2.233.9
Caucasian3.32.52.1
Asian1.92.12.4
Mixed1.40.91.2
Other0.70.20.4
Source: radar

When there is too much of anything, prices typically decline. The interaction of supply and demand is core to economics.

Population Breakdown in Satan Clara CA - Census 2014

RacePercent
Caucasian25
Asian20
Hispanic40
Mixed3
Black10
Other2
Source: polarArea

This applies to housing also. So rather than looking at those markets with the least amount of inventory, which would indicate rising prices, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) examined markets with the greatest vacancy rates. They looked at the vacancy rate of housing units for sale in the top 75 metros as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.

2017 Monthly Increase Sales in Miami (%)

Months2017 Monthly Increase Sales in Miami (%)Ratio
11.1541.154
23.7253.725
32.9872.987
42.3102.310
51.9541.954
62.1522.152
72.2472.247
81.6711.671
91.1111.111
102.1222.122
112.7522.752
121.1001.100
Source: bubble

Revenue (millions) vs. Comsumer Rating (%)

Consumer Rating (%)Revenue (millions)r
102.310
408.530
102.310
204.220
102.310
75.37
267.226
408.530
Source: bubble

The calculation was done by taking the number of vacant units for sale, then dividing by the sum of vacant for-sale units plus owner-occupied units, then multiplying by 100. Rental properties were not included in the equation.

Population Breakdown in H-town

RacePercent
Black10
Asian20
Hispanic40
Caucasian25
Mixed3
Other2
Source: Doughnut

So what were NAHB’s findings?

Population Breakdown in H-town

RacePercent
Black10
Asian20
Hispanic40
Caucasian25
Mixed3
Other2
Source: Pie

To read the NAHB analysis and view the top-20 markets for residential vacancies, click http://www.builderonline.com/money/economics/builder-beware-30-msas-where-vacancy-rates-are-rising_o?utm_source=newsletter&utm_content=Report%2FResearch&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BBU_082216%20(1)&he=0db8bf94e31587727172b0e35615198372ed6096

Do these statistics add up, so to speak? Not necessarily. San Antonio-New Braunfels, for example, has just 3.9 months of inventory of homes available for sale, as reported by the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. With six months considered normal, the current less-than-four-months of inventory would indicate a tight housing market with limited inventory. Prices support that conclusion as the 12-month moving average of median prices is up 4.88 percent on a year-over-year basis as of July 2016.

Stewart Revenue Increased in 2016 (millions)

State2016 Revenue2015 Revenue
Texas213192
Florida194185
California189181
NY183180
Arizona186176
Washington174162
North Carolina153150
Georgia149143
Louisiana127122
Source: horizontalBar

Also consider the building permits versus jobs analysis — see http://blog.stewart.com/stewart/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2016/08/8-17-16-pdf.pdf This shows that in San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas there were 2.70 net new jobs created in the prior 12 months for each residential permit issued. With normal considered as 1.25 to 1.50 net new jobs per new dwelling permit, the San Antonio MSA is delivering just one-half of the new product needed. Dayton, Ohio gained 9.45 net new jobs per new dwelling unit and New Haven, Connecticut had 6.87 new jobs per new permit. Perhaps the vacant homes in this study are not truly habitable and are future lots for new construction following demolition or improvements.

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1-Jun-073300000
1-May-076850000
1-Jan-0825000000
1-Oct-066000000
1-Dec-071500000
14-May-056000000
1-Aug-0710260000
1-May-072000000
23-Jun-0834500000
1-Feb-08250000
15-Apr-056250000
6-Mar-0814600000
1-May-079000000
1-May-08500000
1-Dec-0715000000
1-Jul-072250000
10-Mar-086100000
20-Mar-071000000
1-Dec-0710000000
1-Aug-0710300000
1-Jul-067000000
1-Mar-071000000
1-Apr-083000000
1-Aug-075000000
21-May-082500000
1-Jan-081000000
18-Apr-085000000
8-May-0815000000
5-Jun-083000000
1-Nov-05300000
1-Dec-064000000
1-May-075000000
1-Dec-047000000
1-Dec-07196000000
1-May-0611500000
28-Jan-0810000000
6-Mar-0811600000
1-Feb-055100000
1-May-072100000
1-Mar-062000000
1-Mar-051500000
1-Mar-071500000
1-Apr-05500000
1-Jul-064000000
1-Dec-076000000
1-Mar-073300000
1-Jan-061500000
1-Nov-058000000
1-Jul-042500000
1-May-075400000
1-Aug-045200000
1-Dec-077200000
1-Jan-058000000
1-Jul-0618000000
25-Apr-087000000
1-Aug-0519500000
1-Jan-0820000000
1-May-0613000000
1-Apr-057000000
10-Mar-082700000
16-Jun-0810700000
1-Aug-0715000000
1-Apr-0626000000
1-Oct-0630000000
1-Jan-0813000000
1-Oct-05400000
1-Dec-055000000
1-Dec-03750000
1-Sep-045200000
1-Mar-0612000000
1-Oct-073000000
16-May-086600000
1-Jul-071500000
23-Jun-0810000000
1-Aug-0710000000
1-Jul-067000000
1-May-0720000000
1-Mar-063000000
1-Apr-065000000
23-Sep-93125000
1-Feb-0816700000
1-Oct-079500000
1-Aug-0715000
29-Nov-066200000
27-Feb-077000000
1-Mar-0820000000
1-Mar-08300000
27-Mar-0815000000
28-Apr-0819000000
1-Oct-075000000
1-May-072700000
1-Oct-0710000
11-Mar-071200000
6-Jun-072000000
1-Nov-071250000
1-Feb-08250000
1-May-0715000
10-Oct-0610000000
7-Apr-084000000
14-Feb-056000000
29-Apr-0815000000
27-Jun-0714000000
1-Jun-08750000
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1-Jun-077400000
1-Mar-068500000
10-Jul-0710000000
1-Jan-0720000
1-Jul-0713500000
1-Sep-046600000
1-Jun-068100000
1-Jun-061500000
1-Oct-079000000
1-Nov-048400000
1-Apr-06100000
1-Jan-0618000
22-Apr-0857000000
1-Jun-079500000
1-Aug-055000000
1-Feb-061000000
23-Jun-0811000000
1-May-0710000000
1-Jan-062500000
1-Jan-0613300000
1-Feb-0612000000
1-Jan-085000000
1-Jul-0725000000
1-Jul-071500000
1-Dec-073800000
26-Apr-065000000
2-Apr-0815500000
20-May-08250000
1-Oct-07100000
10-May-063800000
1-Aug-07100000000
1-Sep-075000000
1-May-06500000
16-May-0812000000
1-Mar-07750000
1-Mar-072300000
1-Dec-071250000
1-Feb-082200000
27-Feb-085600000
1-Dec-0715000000
1-Jul-0720000000
24-Jan-0720000
10-Jan-0820000
8-May-083000000
1-Jan-0820000
1-Aug-0777000000
1-Mar-013000000
1-Jul-0721000000
1-Jan-0614000000
1-Jan-0850000000
21-Apr-086500000
1-Jan-07500000
2-May-08550000
2-May-07250000
1-Oct-07340000
1-Jun-0715000
1-Aug-061000000
21-Jul-081000000
1-Dec-07225000
1-Oct-074500000
1-Nov-071100000
1-May-062000000
1-Jan-08365000
14-Jan-081300000
1-Jun-07935000
1-Jun-081100000
30-May-088000000
1-Jun-072300000
4-Apr-0810000000
28-Mar-0815000000
1-Sep-0732000000
1-May-0616000000
1-Sep-0621000000
1-Oct-079500000
20-May-0810500000
30-Oct-079500000
1-May-078900000
1-Feb-074000000
1-Mar-0615000000
1-Feb-0715000000
1-Jan-0827000000
1-Oct-074200000
1-Aug-0736600000
10-Jul-082500000
25-Oct-063000000
1-Dec-026000000
1-Dec-0410000000
1-Jun-9925000000
1-Nov-07750000
23-Jul-082000000
23-Jan-083000000
1-Aug-051000000
1-Jul-075000000
4-May-0830000000
1-Sep-07375000
1-Mar-081100000
1-Feb-077500000
1-Feb-0823000000
1-Aug-074500000
27-Mar-083000000
1-Jul-041100000
1-Feb-0865000000
1-Dec-0618500000
1-Feb-0820000000
1-Jul-0510000000
1-May-076300000
16-Mar-086500000
1-Feb-066000000
9-Mar-089500000
1-Feb-073000000
1-Jun-06325000
1-Sep-071300000
1-Jan-0710000000
5-Feb-0819000000
1-Mar-065100000
1-Oct-072000000
1-Mar-0710000000
1-Jan-071500000
17-Jul-0822400000
1-Mar-0720000000
1-May-075000000
24-Apr-081200000
1-Jan-08250000
1-Sep-0750000000
16-Mar-081500000
18-Apr-083000000
1-Oct-07500000
1-Jun-068930000
1-Mar-0712000000
14-Jul-0811000000
1-Dec-071000000
1-Oct-07500000
1-Mar-054000000
1-Dec-0715000000
8-Aug-055000000
1-Dec-065500000
1-Jun-082000000
17-Jun-0812500000
1-Dec-022400000
1-Oct-0313000000
1-Aug-0610000000
5-Aug-0820000000
26-Feb-085000000
3-May-075700000
1-Dec-062300000
1-Aug-0612000000
1-Mar-0615000000
1-Jan-0842500000
2-May-083000000
9-Nov-072000000
1-May-075450000
19-Nov-0710000000
1-Oct-074000000
1-Jan-088000000
1-Sep-0625000
1-Sep-071050000
1-May-08150000
1-Jun-08100000
1-Feb-083000000
8-Mar-073500000
12-Mar-083200000
1-May-07500000
6-Feb-083700000
21-May-0815000000
1-Jun-0610000000
1-Nov-053300000
4-Apr-085000000
1-Feb-072000000
1-Mar-071600000
18-Mar-086000000
1-Jan-072000000
3-Apr-082000000
1-Oct-073000000
14-Oct-044000000
10-Jun-0815000000
13-Nov-0610000000
1-Aug-0715000
28-Feb-08500000
1-Feb-055600000
1-Nov-065250000
1-Jan-085300000
1-Aug-071700000
1-Jun-041000000
1-Apr-057000000
1-Aug-074500000
1-Apr-0850000000
17-Jan-081600000
1-Jul-046000000
1-May-07500000
1-Feb-071000000
1-Nov-075500000
1-Jul-057000000
1-Oct-041500000
1-Jan-0712100000
1-Jun-074500000
1-Oct-07300000000
15-Jan-0815000000
1-Mar-0840000000
1-Sep-04500000
1-Apr-0627500000
1-May-0512700000
1-May-08100000000
1-May-0724900000
1-Sep-054100000
1-Feb-0714300000
1-Jun-068000000
1-May-07750000
1-Jan-07400000
21-Mar-0730000000
1-Dec-038000000
11-Jun-075500000
1-Oct-072000000
1-Mar-0430000
13-May-083000000
22-May-046000000
1-Oct-074000000
1-Sep-073000000
1-Mar-066000000
1-Aug-0715000
1-Sep-07250000
1-Mar-052100000
1-Sep-067500000
1-Nov-06100000
13-Mar-075500000
1-Dec-041350000
1-Jul-073250000
1-Nov-061000000
1-Jan-0827000000
1-Jun-06315000
24-Apr-08450000
21-Apr-08130000000
17-Jan-0810000000
1-Apr-0610000000
1-Mar-0722000000
1-Nov-0740000
1-Jan-0730000
2-May-039500000
1-Aug-0814500000
1-Aug-0620000000
7-Sep-057000000
25-Mar-0810000000
1-Jan-083500000
13-Jul-0815000000
15-Jun-06100000
1-Jan-0815000000
1-Nov-0115000000
1-Jan-0110000000
1-Jun-0415000000
15-Aug-072600000
2-Jun-08150000
1-Nov-04110000000
1-Jun-003000000
1-Jun-0415000000
1-Dec-029000000
9-Apr-08400000
1-Jul-075000000
1-Dec-076000000
1-Jun-074000000
1-Oct-076000000
1-Sep-077400000
1-Jan-085900000
1-Oct-063500000
10-Mar-082700000
1-Nov-071250000
1-Jun-07300000
8-May-065800000
1-Sep-073500000
1-Sep-061000000
1-Apr-0610000000
1-Sep-0712400000
28-Apr-083250000
1-Nov-07750000
7-Feb-081000000
1-Sep-072500000
18-Mar-08500000
1-Jul-086000000
1-Feb-072400000
3-Jul-0733000000
14-Mar-0518000000
23-Apr-0310000000
5-Feb-0710000000
14-Jun-055200000
1-Dec-038400000
1-Dec-0313000000
1-Oct-052800000
1-Dec-068500000
1-Nov-074750000
1-Aug-0610000000
1-Oct-0710000000
21-Jun-073500000
1-May-06120000000
24-Mar-0835000000
1-Sep-07100000000
1-Sep-06100000000
1-Aug-078000000
1-Dec-061650000
29-Mar-055500000
1-May-0718500000
17-May-0611000000
1-Sep-075000000
1-Jun-078300000
1-Mar-0560000000
8-Jul-0875000000
1-Dec-073000000
1-Oct-0136000000
1-Jul-0437000000
1-Feb-0335000000
1-Feb-083500000
1-May-071000000
1-Jun-079500000
18-May-074000000
1-Jan-08150000
1-Jul-075000000
29-Jul-0515000000
1-Feb-084050000
23-May-083000000
1-Dec-073000000
1-Jan-07100000
1-May-07750000
1-Dec-051750000
1-Jun-088000000
11-Jul-073000000
1-Jun-071000000
7-Apr-086500000
1-Feb-0822000000
6-Mar-082500000
9-Apr-086000000
13-Mar-071500000
1-Jun-02250000
9-Mar-0631000000
4-Apr-0860000000
1-Jul-073000000
20-Feb-0821000000
1-Jun-071000000
1-Oct-9930000000
1-Jan-087000000
1-May-0035000000
1-Apr-9916000000
1-Jun-043000000
20-Jul-0826000000
1-Jun-059000000
1-Dec-077000000
1-Aug-07200000
1-Aug-075500000
1-Jan-088000000
1-Jul-061800000
1-Jun-05300000
13-Aug-0115000000
6-Jun-0220000000
6-Oct-0313000000
1-Aug-0710000000
1-May-071100000
1-May-081600000
1-Feb-062600000
15-Apr-086600000
1-Feb-087800000
1-Apr-04120000
15-Jul-082700000
1-Mar-063200000
1-Mar-078000000
12-Feb-08510000
15-Mar-056500000
22-May-071300000
25-Jul-075000000
1-Jun-0720000
14-Jul-083500000
1-Jan-075000000
1-Mar-0810000000
1-Sep-051200000
1-Aug-061400000
1-Dec-07500000
22-Aug-0717000000
1-Feb-075500000
20-May-0818000000
1-May-062500000
27-Jul-0710000000
1-May-089000000
12-May-083000000
1-Jun-073000000
1-Jul-0411000000
1-Jan-0813500000
1-May-0710000000
31-Mar-0812500000
1-Dec-065000000
25-Jan-08233750
1-Oct-06140000
1-Jun-0613100000
22-Feb-057000000
1-Jan-0015000000
4-Apr-0726500000
1-Jan-06500000
1-Jul-071000000
28-Apr-0518000000
1-May-0730000000
22-Jan-047000000
10-Jul-084500000
1-Jan-076000000
1-Nov-0710000000
16-Apr-087000000
1-May-07500000
1-Oct-075500000
1-Feb-071000000
1-Dec-061100000
1-Nov-054000000
1-Mar-085000000
1-Jan-072350000
1-Apr-073100000
1-Sep-076500000
1-Sep-076000000
1-Aug-07600000
1-May-073100000
29-Jun-073000000
1-Mar-062500000
1-Dec-063500000
1-May-0715000000
28-Dec-075000000
23-Jul-082900000
1-Mar-001200000
1-May-01300000
1-Feb-0514000000
1-Dec-078000000
1-May-076000000
7-Apr-0825000000
1-Sep-061200000
1-Apr-07300000
1-Jan-0715000
14-Mar-088000000
1-Oct-062000000
13-Apr-084000000
1-May-07250000
14-Apr-086000000
1-Jul-072800000
11-Sep-0610000000
26-Mar-0814000000
1-Jan-0810000000
4-Aug-0811000000
1-Oct-075000000
1-May-07200000
1-Aug-0715000
1-Mar-081000000
13-Apr-07200000
1-Nov-0516200000
1-May-084900000
1-Sep-065000000
1-Jan-0759500000
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12-Nov-0715000000
1-Jul-0721400000
1-Oct-061500000
23-Jan-086000000
7-Jul-0812000000
1-Jun-0715000
1-Nov-068000000
1-Jan-0715600000
1-Jan-0845000000
7-Jul-0510000000
1-Jul-084000000
1-Aug-07100000
1-Oct-06500000
1-Oct-0612000000
1-Apr-076000000
1-Feb-0511500000
1-Nov-0750000000
25-Jun-084600000
20-Feb-086500000
1-Nov-0614750000
1-Oct-0712000000
1-Dec-0625000000
1-Sep-058750000
1-Sep-0411800000
1-Jul-031500000
3-Jan-081000000
1-Nov-077000000
1-Apr-064000000
1-Mar-0627400000
7-Apr-084500000
1-Nov-071200000
25-Mar-0817500000
17-Jul-088000000
1-May-0615000000
1-Sep-078800000
1-May-064000000
18-Jun-087100000
1-Aug-0730000000
1-Apr-065000000
1-Jan-084000000
1-Jul-071500000
25-Aug-067000000
1-Sep-076000000
1-Nov-0725000000
1-May-0717000000
1-Jul-051100000
1-Jan-0829500000
1-Feb-065000000
1-Sep-0740000000
10-Jun-0820000000
2-Apr-0812000000
18-Dec-068000000
28-Jan-062000000
1-Mar-0122900000
1-Nov-051000000
1-May-075000000
1-May-036200000
1-May-046700000
1-Jan-065400000
1-Jul-0710000000
1-Mar-9925000000
1-Feb-0530000000
7-Nov-074000000
1-Nov-07800000
21-Jul-0810000000
13-Mar-081100000
21-Jul-0810000000
20-Nov-07255000
1-Oct-06177000
29-Jul-08550000
1-Apr-991360000
1-May-0028000000
1-Sep-992750000
17-Jun-0813000000
1-Jan-99300000
1-Sep-074000000
1-Jan-072000000
1-Sep-9933200000
1-Jan-0715000000
1-Nov-065000000
1-Jul-061100000
1-Sep-073300000
31-Jul-074500000
1-Jul-0410000000
1-Feb-0612400000
1-Jul-075000000
8-Jul-081200000
29-Feb-088000000
1-Jun-0615500000
1-Jul-0412000000
1-Jun-034200000
16-May-085000000
1-Apr-0720000000
1-Jun-065000000
1-Oct-9960000000
1-Jan-0225000000
1-May-064100000
1-Jun-051000000
1-Dec-04440000
1-Oct-07288000
5-Jul-07100000
1-Dec-0710000000
31-Jul-07630000
1-Apr-08600000
1-Mar-0715000000
18-Apr-0719000000
1-Aug-068000000
24-Feb-0880000000
1-Nov-0723000000
1-Feb-068000000
1-Sep-044000000
15-Feb-071500000
1-Jul-0710000000
1-Jun-065000000
23-Jan-0812000000
1-Jan-0510000000
1-Jul-0720000000
1-May-025000000
1-May-007700000
1-Mar-0315500000
1-Dec-077000000
1-Dec-065000000
1-Oct-0716000000
29-Jun-0712750000
3-Jun-084000000
1-Feb-0630000000
1-Oct-0730000000
1-Jan-0740000000
1-Aug-081000000
1-May-079000000
1-Apr-07300000
1-Nov-075000000
1-Jan-072850000
1-Jul-074000000

Would I rely on the U.S. Census data on residential vacancies to ascertain over-supplied markets? No, I believe the jobs versus residential permits gives a much clearer and accurate analysis of supply versus demand, particularly when examined over a multiple year perspective.

U.S. Existing Home Sales (Median Price - Not Seasonally Adjusted - $Thousands)

Month201520162017
January190203221
February198208224
March202210230
April218222234
June224235245
July240242249
August234238245
September220207227237
October223224231
November227231236
December231237239
Souce: Natioanl Association of REALTORS
Source: bar
District 
Grand Total600
Mid-Atlantic States93
New England States99
North Central States93
Northeast States96
Southeastern States128
Western States91
Rank - Name (State)Remittance Total
Rank 1 - David Baghdady (CT)100699
Rank 2 - Annette Ahlers (FL)74872
Rank 3 - Angela Fling (TX)63584
Rank 4 - Nancy Frandsen (ID, MT, UT)60496
Rank 5 - Michele Poff (DE, PA)37192
Rank 6 - Diana Lewis (SC)28813
Rank 7 - Brandon Linscomb (TX)26611
Rank 8 - Michele Smith (NJ)25145
Rank 9 - Jillian Michel (PA)24845
Rank 10 - Geri Combs (CO, ND, SD)24082

Ted

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